Stockouts kill your best-sellers
A product goes out of stock and the sale does not wait. Shoppers buy from a competitor or not at all, and the ad spend that drove them is wasted.
Anticipate demand, grow your margin
Know what runs out next, before it costs you.
The Good Forecast helps founder-led e-commerce brands spot stockout and overstock risk before it hits revenue or cash flow. From your SKU sales, current stock and lead times, you get what to reorder, what to stop buying, and which SKUs run out in the next 8 weeks.
- Free audit
- No software to install
- Your data stays confidential
- Results in days
Weekly reorder plan
sample| SKU | Status | Cover |
|---|---|---|
| Hoodie · Black | Reorder | 3 wks |
| Tee · White M | Healthy | 11 wks |
| Cap · Navy | At risk | 1 wks |
| Bottle · 750ml | Reorder | 4 wks |
12 SKUs
to reorder
5 SKUs
at risk < 8 wks
What forecasting failures cost e-commerce
- $1.77T
- lost to stockouts & overstock worldwide, every year
- ~8%
- of retail items are out of stock at any given time
- ~40%
- of shoppers walk away when a product is out of stock
- up to 65%
- fewer lost sales with better demand forecasting
around 6.5% of all retail sales
the foundational out-of-stock benchmark
they buy elsewhere or not at all
reduction in stockout-driven losses
The problem
Every reorder is a bet. Most brands place it blind.
When you forecast in spreadsheets or on gut feel, two expensive things happen at once: your best-sellers run dry while cash sits frozen in stock that will not move. Both quietly bleed margin, and both are predictable.
Overstock freezes your cash
Over-order and your working capital is locked in boxes. It ages into markdowns and deadstock while you keep paying to store it.
Launches are pure guesswork
New products and variants have no sales history, so the first reorder quantity is a guess, the riskiest bet of all.
The numbers behind it
The approach
A demand forecast built around how your brand actually sells.
We are demand forecasting specialists. The Good Forecast turns your own sales, stock and lead-time data into clear reorder decisions, including the products you have not launched yet.
SKU-level demand forecast
An 8 to 12 week projection for every product, updated as new sales come in.
Reorder plan you can act on
What to order, how much and when, accounting for your supplier lead times and minimum order quantities.
Stockout & overstock alerts
The exact SKUs about to run out, and the ones tying up cash, ranked by priority.
Pre-launch forecasting
Demand estimates for new products and variants so your first order is sized on logic, not hope.
Who it's for
Built for founder-led e-commerce brands.
If you carry real inventory: frequent restocks, sold-outs, lots of variants and regular launches, we are built for you. We work with brands across these categories.
- Supplements
- Beauty
- Pet
- Food & snacks
- Coffee & tea
- Home decor
- Sports & fitness
- Baby
How it works
From export to decisions in days, not quarters.
No software to install, no long onboarding. Four steps on your real data.
- 01
Send your export
Two simple exports from Shopify or Amazon: SKU sales and current stock. About five minutes.
- 02
Get your free audit
Within a few days you see which SKUs run out in the next 8 weeks and how much revenue is at risk.
- 03
Run the pilot
A four-week forecast and weekly reorder file, with a short call each week to decide together.
- 04
Scale what works
If the pilot pays for itself, move to an ongoing monthly forecast. Decided on results, not upfront.
Offer
Start free. Pay only once it pays off.
A simple ladder: a free audit and pilot first, then an ongoing forecast. You decide at each step, on results.
Start here
Audit + Pilot
Free
A 30-minute read of your real numbers, then a four-week SKU forecast and weekly reorder file, with a weekly decision call. Free to start, so we earn the relationship before you ever pay.
Monthly forecast
On request
Ongoing weekly forecast, reorder plan and dashboard, so every reorder is backed by data.
Forecast platform
Later
A productized tool once the model is proven on your brand. Not before it earns it.
Get my free audit
Most brands start with the free audit. There is no obligation.
FAQ
What founders ask before sending their numbers.
What data do you need?
Two exports: your SKU sales for the last 12 months and your current stock. A SKU code is enough, you do not need to share product names.
Is my data safe?
Yes. Your data is used only to produce your audit, never shared, and deleted on request. We sign a confidentiality agreement before you send anything.
Which platforms do you support?
Shopify and Amazon exports work out of the box. WooCommerce or a custom store is fine too, send what you have and we adapt.
How big does my brand need to be?
The sweet spot is roughly 20 to 500 SKUs with real restock complexity. If you feel stockouts and overstock, the audit will be worth it.
How much does the audit cost?
The audit and the initial pilot are both free. If the forecast proves its value, you can move to an ongoing monthly engagement, priced to your scope. You are never charged for the audit or the pilot.
Do I need to install software?
No. You send two exports and receive clear files and decisions. Nothing to install or integrate.
Free forecast audit
See what runs out in the next 8 weeks.
Tell us about your brand and we will get back to you to run a free audit on your real numbers. No obligation.